Post the carnage at Mumbai, global political games have kicked off. While India is constantly and as it seems, convincingly, accusing Pakistan of having played a direct role in the attack, Pakistan is using the good-will of its civilian leadership to act the angel. The US, never a mute spectator, has its own ends to meet through India and Pakistan. The leaders are measuring their words, encapsulating it in diplomacy to avoid a face-off.
A war-like situation is developing. Given the economic situation in Pakistan [their economy was on the verge of collapsing a few fortnights back; received a 'bailout' loan from IMF to the tune of $7 bn. ], it is evident that Pakistan can't afford a war. India, on the other hand, is economically much better off to deal with the inevitable.
Pakistani troops, about 100,00 in number are occupying its western border with Afghan and this is of utmost importance to the US to maintain pressure on Taliban. Fearing an Indian backlash, the Pakistan army has started to 'blackmail' the US maintaining that if India ups the ante along their border, Pakis would have no option but to mobilize their forces towards the east to fend off any Indian insurgency. That would inturn give Bush/Obama sleepless nights as all their progress in Afghan till now will be undone.
Given that international consensus and support is imperative for Pakistan's survival (lets talk about growth later), the civilian government led by Asif Zardari is playing all its diplomatic cards, including appeasing India to minimize the damage. If the civilian government is indeed looking at bettering ties with India, then this incident is a clinching proof to show that the military is the real boss. The international community, including India, fears that should a war break out in the near future, the military in Pakistan would overturn the people's government and we will again have a situation where the jehadi extremists call the shots. Add the nukes, the concoction becomes extremely precarious. Whether they have the pair to engage in nuclear warfare is a question better not posed to the radical extremists.
While India, in all its sanity would wage a 'clean war', the Pakis can resort to anything because the leadership there is based on anti-India ideology, a hatred based one. Infact, the Army Chief of Pakistan is a former ISI chief. This might prevent India from going ahead with a full-fledged war.
A quote from a recent TOI article:
Leave out everything, the coming few days will see a lot of international lobbying. Needless to say, a war SHOULD be avoided - but not at the cost of appellation of 'soft state' to India. Its time we show the world who's the boss and if need be, be the means to the end.
A war-like situation is developing. Given the economic situation in Pakistan [their economy was on the verge of collapsing a few fortnights back; received a 'bailout' loan from IMF to the tune of $7 bn. ], it is evident that Pakistan can't afford a war. India, on the other hand, is economically much better off to deal with the inevitable.
Pakistani troops, about 100,00 in number are occupying its western border with Afghan and this is of utmost importance to the US to maintain pressure on Taliban. Fearing an Indian backlash, the Pakistan army has started to 'blackmail' the US maintaining that if India ups the ante along their border, Pakis would have no option but to mobilize their forces towards the east to fend off any Indian insurgency. That would inturn give Bush/Obama sleepless nights as all their progress in Afghan till now will be undone.
Given that international consensus and support is imperative for Pakistan's survival (lets talk about growth later), the civilian government led by Asif Zardari is playing all its diplomatic cards, including appeasing India to minimize the damage. If the civilian government is indeed looking at bettering ties with India, then this incident is a clinching proof to show that the military is the real boss. The international community, including India, fears that should a war break out in the near future, the military in Pakistan would overturn the people's government and we will again have a situation where the jehadi extremists call the shots. Add the nukes, the concoction becomes extremely precarious. Whether they have the pair to engage in nuclear warfare is a question better not posed to the radical extremists.
While India, in all its sanity would wage a 'clean war', the Pakis can resort to anything because the leadership there is based on anti-India ideology, a hatred based one. Infact, the Army Chief of Pakistan is a former ISI chief. This might prevent India from going ahead with a full-fledged war.
A quote from a recent TOI article:
Even in the political sphere, Pakistan's continued existence as a single entity is premised on enmity with India, the glue which keeps the country together. Some Pakistanis have suggested in recent months that take away animosity against India, then Pakistan's founding itself becomes questionable.International community might vehemently side with India in the coming days but will also be careful enough to craft strategies to ward off war calls. The US has a bunch of problems to heed to - the economic recession and the transition in their own leadership. An Indo-Pak standoff will only add to their woes. US can't sever its links with Pakistan and they can't go back on the newly established love relationship with India. And at a juncture of transition between two leaderships opposite in their beliefs, more external trouble spells more internal indifferences.
Leave out everything, the coming few days will see a lot of international lobbying. Needless to say, a war SHOULD be avoided - but not at the cost of appellation of 'soft state' to India. Its time we show the world who's the boss and if need be, be the means to the end.
7 comments:
very well written buddy...The coherence and flow of ideas is what i liked most.
Wonder why you dont write more often?
India, on the other hand, is economically much better off to deal with the inevitable.
The inevitable? Really? I'll admit, on first reading the news and hearing the indications of Pakistani involvement I too had a knee-jerk "This is war!" response, but I would hardly call it inevitable. For one thing, there is NO scenario in which a war between 2 nations with this level of military capability-and they may be relatively weaker, but like they say, it doesn't really matter if you can blow the world up 20 times over or 200, once is enough- ends up better for us than where we are now, as tragic as the situation seems... and both governments know this.
I would say that the best outcome is where India makes incursions to within Pakistan to find the terrorists, successfully eliminates entire groups such as the LeT, and the Pakistani civilian government either turns a blind eye or openly supports this. Preferably the latter, although the chances of that are even weaker. Neither is very likely, of course, especially if the military is actually pulling the strings. But let's see.
Very well written article, by the way. Kudos.
awsmly written..lots of info well researched upon..if not war. where r our terrorists!! send em..
Coherence commendable.
@Ubiquitous, Thanks - I am writing pretty often these days. Nothing much to do other than play cricket ;-)
@Rambling Perfectionist, I do not see a war happening - the tensions are being diffused through political 'wisdom'. If they hand over Dawood and cooperate in the investigations, I think we'd have achieved our goals. As you say, with so much military power, it might end up better for us but it'll leave a destroyed state there and that will have ugly long-term implication on us
@ Aroused, Thanks - Our "terrorists", I am told there is a battalion within the India Army which specializes in going into the enemy territory for warfare. And they are ready for action :-)
@ Ugri, Thanks! :-)
Quite an insightful post.......Although, Pakistan, apart from using its civilians and its disdainful lack of control over the so-called Jehadi camps as leverage to ward off any war signals has also resorted to their dirty tactics like accusing the Indian Govt of orchestrating the Mumbai Terror attacks. Instead of focusing on the eradication of the terrorist camps, their govt is indulging in a blame game and is constantly harping over the fact that there was an intelligence failure on our part and refusing to acknowledge despite overwhelming evidence that the terrorists had their base in Pakistan.
@ Shounak, Thanks.
We are seeing a too-typical response from Pakistan. But the reaction has been far more aggressive from our side - I think Pranab Mukherjee is doing a fantastic job is keep up the pressure and mobilizing international support.
But, war seems to be off the cards now.
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